Portland Trail Blazers Off Season Preview
The 2020 NBA season has finally concluded, with the multi million venture that was the Bubble exceeding expectations in every way. Now comes a very condensed off season, with the draft coming on November 18th.
Teams will have to act fast, and I’m sure there have been many conversations between agents and teams through back channels, even though it isn’t legal to do so yet. Front offices will have to move faster than ever, very similar to the lockout year, where they had a week to operate.
The Blazers are one of the teams who will have several big decisions to make in the next month, involving key players who were injured or need a new contract.
Olshey will need to see what tinkering he can do to a roster that needs lots of help. Damian Lillard is in his prime and has to carry the team on a night in and night out basis. He needs better play from CJ and Nurkic, if this team is to succeed next year.
Health has been a big problem lately for the Blazers with Nurkic coming back from a knee injury, Rodney Hood tearing his Achilles and so on. Staying healthy, as for any team is important, but especially for the Blazers will be a huge swing for this team and will determine their success.
Let’s take a look at their roster, and with who is under contract for next year.
Damian Lillard: Franchise cornerstone, best player on the team. Rip City is lucky to have him.
CJ McCollum: 2020 was not the best CJ year as he battled an injured back in the Bubble. The team doesn’t go anywhere without his scoring ability.
Jusuf Nurkic: He was ready to come back after his long knee injury, and played as well as you could have hoped in the Bubble. Nurkic is an integral part to their defensive identity, walling off the rim and being the backline for Dame/CJ. His presence can’t be understated.
Zach Collins: This coming season is a make or break season for Collins, who’s showcased a great ability to protect the rim and shoot the three ball. The big problems with Zach include excessive fouls and injuries. Will Portland extend him or wait till summer 21 to give him a new contract.
Gary Trent Jr.: Trent showed out in the bubble, displaying a great blend of 3&D play that has been missing from the Blazers. He’s a bit small to play the three (6’4) but having him on the court means he will do his job and make threes while playing solid D. Valuable part of the Blazer team.
Anfernee Simons: Simons showed his age this year, performing terribly on both sides of the ball. He will need to show improvement to help the Blazers bench this coming year.
Nassir Little: Little didn’t play much this year, but he looks to be another non shooting wing that’s quite average on the defensive end. I would look to use Little as trade bait.
Player Options:
Rodney Hood: I imagine Hood opts in to his 6M player option coming off his Achilles injury. The Blazers will need him to compete next year.
Mario Hezonja: His 1.9M player option will most likely be picked up, unless some other team promises him playing time, which I doubt would happen because Hezonja just isn’t an NBA player.
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Hassan Whiteside: The Blazers needed Whiteside desperately this past season, but committing money from their MLE to Whiteside to back up Nurk might be too much.
I imagine Whiteside only gets the taxpayer MLE which stands at 4.7 M from a good team and at most the non-tax payer MLE from a bad team like the Hornets at 9.7M.
I think finding a better rim runner as their backup C will help the Blazers more than Whiteside. There are lots of options in the league for a cheap backup C that Olshey will look at.
Carmelo Anthony: Melo showed that he still has a place in the league playing at the 4 scoring points on bench units. I imagine the Blazers offer the Bi-Annual Exception to Melo and he accepts it unless some other team offers a bigger role on a minimum contract.
Jaylen Hoard: Very young and raw player, something the Blazers don’t need at this stage in contention.
Moses Brown: Could be the most raw player that got NBA minutes last year. He needs to spend time in the G League desperately.
Wenyen Gabriel: I think the Blazers offer a minimum contract to Gabriel, because he showed great switch ability at the 4 with solid offensive rebounding. You could do worse on a minimum contract. Gives 110% effort every time he steps on the floor.
Non Guaranteed:
Trevor Ariza: Ariza’s contract stands at 12.8M if Olshey guarantees it, which I think he will use in trade offers. If not used in trades, Ariza is only guaranteed 1.8M if he gets cut. It doesn’t give the Blazers much more room under the salary tax, so I imagine they guarantee it.
Team Needs:
With the roster laid out, finding a 3 or 4 that can shoot or defend is of the utmost importance for this team. The Blazers rely on too many young players to play meaningful minutes on a playoff team. Let’s list out some trade targets with some hypothetical trades attached.
Gordon Hayward — trading for Gordon would be a huge addition to the Blazers. I’m going to operate with the idea that Olshey is too tied to CJ to move him, but if he could get Hayward, I think you have to move CJ to a third team.
Here’s what a trade could look like.
This would work if the Celtics want to add depth and see Zach as their C of the future. Portland would add Hayward to the trio of Dame/CJ/Nurk and be a West contender immediately.
Aaron Gordon: Not a perfect fit, but brings unreal athleticism and strong defense inside and out. Dame would love throwing lobs off the PNR to hit Gordon for a ferocious oop. I’m sure other teams could offer better packages, but the Blazers can offer their first round pick for Orlando.
Harrison Barnes: This would be more in the wheelhouse of Olshey. Barnes has a declining contract for the next three years at 22M, 20M, then 18M. It gives the Blazers a versatile wing who can switch between the 3 and 4 and a contract that can still be tradeable in coming years. He’s the same age range as Dame and CJ as well. I don’t think a pick is needed due to adding two years of salary but I added Little to the trade because I think the Kings want to do a little reset because they know their team isn’t ready to compete right now. Trade also works with Hood instead of Little.
Those are some targets I think that could be realistic for the Blazers to entertain. I am of the opinion that I would move anyone, including CJ and Nurk if you could bring in a star wing and a complimentary player or two. I would love to see Dame have a shot at a title, but with the roster as it is, I don’t think they have a shot of competing at a high level. Which might be okay for the Blazers ownership group. Jody Allen has a perennial playoff team with a healthy Dame/CJ/Nurk, and for a small market like Portland that is fantastic.
To conclude, I think Olshey will do the usual. Draft the best player on their board at 16, re-sign Whiteside/Melo, and look to fill out the bench with the best minimum contracts he can find. This team relies on their big 3 to contribute for them and next season will be no different.
Let’s pray for health for everyone involved, because this team can be really good when health is on their side.
